Whatever you may feel about it, the truth is that Saudi Arabia is one of the more important countries in the world right now. It’s al...
Whatever you may feel about it, the truth is that Saudi Arabia is one of the more important countries in the world right now. It’s also an intensely secretive place; the society is tightly controlled and it’s not always easy to understand what’s going on inside The Kingdom.
Right now, below the surface, Saudi (like Russia) is facing an epic slow moving crisis that could tear it apart. And like China, it is working towards a mammoth master plan to prevent that.
Unless it suddenly finds itself at war, in which case they are screwed even more.
The History of Saudi Arabia (redacted)
How about we skip most of this?
I mean it’s actually NOT important. Sure, I’m a historian, so I’d love to do you a huge post all by itself on this; sections titled The Kingdom of Hejaz; the Saudi-Rashidi Wars; the Conquest of Ha’il, the Treaty of Darin etc. Or maybe just highlight the sheer lethality of the family politics of the House of al-Saud, like the overthrow of King Saud by his brother or the assassination of King Faisal by his nephew.
But I won’t. It’s not actually relevant.
There are however some things about Saudi’s past we NEED to cover because you need to grasp them in order to see what’s biting the Kingdom in the ass right now.
The Rebellious East
So Saudi is a Muslim nation and everyone there is the same kinda Muslim right?
Nope. Far far from it.
There are basically three differing flavours of Islam in competition with one another in the Kingdom. Mostly ones version of Islam depends upon ones tribe (tribal identity is still quite a thing in Saudi). And crucially? A good 15% of the population of Saudi Arabia are adherents of Shi’a Islam.
If you don’t know the difference then let’s just say- Saudi Arabia prides itself on NOT being Shi’a. So being Shi’a in the Kingdom is gonna be problematic at the best of times.
Several times in the past the Shi’a population has rebelled against the Kingdom and if there is to be a region where the Kingdom will send its troops to suppress protests its here (like recently after the execution of prominent Saudi Shi’a cleric Nimar al-Nimar for ‘criticising the countries rulers’ in 2016).
The History of Saudi Arabia (redacted)
How about we skip most of this?
I mean it’s actually NOT important. Sure, I’m a historian, so I’d love to do you a huge post all by itself on this; sections titled The Kingdom of Hejaz; the Saudi-Rashidi Wars; the Conquest of Ha’il, the Treaty of Darin etc. Or maybe just highlight the sheer lethality of the family politics of the House of al-Saud, like the overthrow of King Saud by his brother or the assassination of King Faisal by his nephew.
But I won’t. It’s not actually relevant.
There are however some things about Saudi’s past we NEED to cover because you need to grasp them in order to see what’s biting the Kingdom in the ass right now.
The Rebellious East
So Saudi is a Muslim nation and everyone there is the same kinda Muslim right?
Nope. Far far from it.
There are basically three differing flavours of Islam in competition with one another in the Kingdom. Mostly ones version of Islam depends upon ones tribe (tribal identity is still quite a thing in Saudi). And crucially? A good 15% of the population of Saudi Arabia are adherents of Shi’a Islam.
If you don’t know the difference then let’s just say- Saudi Arabia prides itself on NOT being Shi’a. So being Shi’a in the Kingdom is gonna be problematic at the best of times.
Several times in the past the Shi’a population has rebelled against the Kingdom and if there is to be a region where the Kingdom will send its troops to suppress protests its here (like recently after the execution of prominent Saudi Shi’a cleric Nimar al-Nimar for ‘criticising the countries rulers’ in 2016).
Meet The Ikhwan
Saudi Arabia as a nation only exists because of these guys. Once they were a fanatical army of desert raiders whose military strength helped the House of al-Saud basically create Saudi Arabia. It’s a measure of how influential the Ikhwan were that the flag above ISN’T the flag of Saudi. It’s the Ikhwan’s battle flag.
So who were these guys?
About 150 years ago hard line town dwelling Muslim clerics got a bee in their bonnet about the desert Bedouin tribes. You see the Bedouin lifestyle was, to them, not conducive to the clerics austere, draconian version of Islam. So they targeted the Bedouin tribes, indoctrinated a butt load and produced an army of hard core desert raiders who were a highly effective militia force able to exploit the terrain brilliantly.
The Ikhwan (the word is ‘Brethren’ in Arabic) never really supported the dynasty of al-Saud in their conquest of the peninsular. It was more they felt the House of Al-Saud supported THEIR version of austere extreme Islam (to be precise- the Ikhwan were originally strict adherents of the Hanbali school of Muslim jurisprudence). It should also be said- the Ikhwan also had an issue with ‘foreigners’ (aka anybody NOT from their tribes) and there was a huge cultural/tribal superiority complex running through the group.
In the 1920’s the Ikhwan helped the Saudi’s overrun the entire peninsula except for areas under British protection. The King knew better then to provoke the British, so ordered any and all raids on British ran territories stopped. The Ikhwan felt this was a betrayal and so defied the Kings orders and raided Iraq, Kuwait and Oman.
With British help the Saudi’s crushed the Ikhwan and several of their leaders were killed. However, crucially, they didn’t destroy the Ikhwan. Rather they converted the Bedouin army into the Saudi National Guard.
And that was that.
Or so they thought.
About 150 years ago hard line town dwelling Muslim clerics got a bee in their bonnet about the desert Bedouin tribes. You see the Bedouin lifestyle was, to them, not conducive to the clerics austere, draconian version of Islam. So they targeted the Bedouin tribes, indoctrinated a butt load and produced an army of hard core desert raiders who were a highly effective militia force able to exploit the terrain brilliantly.
The Ikhwan (the word is ‘Brethren’ in Arabic) never really supported the dynasty of al-Saud in their conquest of the peninsular. It was more they felt the House of Al-Saud supported THEIR version of austere extreme Islam (to be precise- the Ikhwan were originally strict adherents of the Hanbali school of Muslim jurisprudence). It should also be said- the Ikhwan also had an issue with ‘foreigners’ (aka anybody NOT from their tribes) and there was a huge cultural/tribal superiority complex running through the group.
In the 1920’s the Ikhwan helped the Saudi’s overrun the entire peninsula except for areas under British protection. The King knew better then to provoke the British, so ordered any and all raids on British ran territories stopped. The Ikhwan felt this was a betrayal and so defied the Kings orders and raided Iraq, Kuwait and Oman.
With British help the Saudi’s crushed the Ikhwan and several of their leaders were killed. However, crucially, they didn’t destroy the Ikhwan. Rather they converted the Bedouin army into the Saudi National Guard.
And that was that.
Or so they thought.
1979: the most important year
The ENTIRE Middle East is still reverberating with the impact of that year. It is simply THE trigger event for everything that happened since (including 9/11 and subsequent events).
So what happened in 1979?
Several huge events. Two especially.
Firstly, in Iran, the pro-West dictator, the Shah, was overthrown in a genuine popular revolt. For the first time EVER in modern history, a Muslim population had risen up and overthrow a seemingly all powerful dictator.
These were young radicals joining forces with normal folks in a mass movement to topple a hereditary ruler. This kind of thing simply never happened in the Midde East.
Obviously this terrified the Saudi royal family. I mean- what if THEIR people had the same idea? Luckily for Saudi- the Iranian revolution was NOT interested in establishing a nice democratic state with freedom of speech and equal rights for everyone.
Unfortunately, the creation of the Shi’a Revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran now presented the Kingdom with a new problem. The Shi’a residents in the east now had new champions. For much of 1979 and 1980 Saudi faced protests and violence flared especially in (you guessed it) the east. The Saudi armed forces responded brutally.
But this was NOT the event that shook Saudi to the core. In 1979 they had an even worse problem. In fact it was their ultimate nightmare...
The Violation of Mecca
On the 20 November 1979, the first day of the new year of 1400 by the Islamic calendar, the Iman of the Grand Mosque of Mecca was leading about 50,000 of the Faithful in early morning prayers. Around 5am an armed force of about 500 insurgents suddenly emerged from the crowd, produced weapons from under their robes, killed the police on duty there, and chained up the gates to the Mosque.
With alarming speed and military precision, the holiest place in Islam had been taken over without warning.
The Mosque was, at the time, being redeveloped by the Bin Laden Group (the building company established by Osama Bin Laden’s family- seriously) and one of the workers was able to ring out and alert the authorities before the phone lines were cut.
Who were these armed men?
Firstly, in Iran, the pro-West dictator, the Shah, was overthrown in a genuine popular revolt. For the first time EVER in modern history, a Muslim population had risen up and overthrow a seemingly all powerful dictator.
These were young radicals joining forces with normal folks in a mass movement to topple a hereditary ruler. This kind of thing simply never happened in the Midde East.
Obviously this terrified the Saudi royal family. I mean- what if THEIR people had the same idea? Luckily for Saudi- the Iranian revolution was NOT interested in establishing a nice democratic state with freedom of speech and equal rights for everyone.
Unfortunately, the creation of the Shi’a Revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran now presented the Kingdom with a new problem. The Shi’a residents in the east now had new champions. For much of 1979 and 1980 Saudi faced protests and violence flared especially in (you guessed it) the east. The Saudi armed forces responded brutally.
But this was NOT the event that shook Saudi to the core. In 1979 they had an even worse problem. In fact it was their ultimate nightmare...
The Violation of Mecca
On the 20 November 1979, the first day of the new year of 1400 by the Islamic calendar, the Iman of the Grand Mosque of Mecca was leading about 50,000 of the Faithful in early morning prayers. Around 5am an armed force of about 500 insurgents suddenly emerged from the crowd, produced weapons from under their robes, killed the police on duty there, and chained up the gates to the Mosque.
With alarming speed and military precision, the holiest place in Islam had been taken over without warning.
The Mosque was, at the time, being redeveloped by the Bin Laden Group (the building company established by Osama Bin Laden’s family- seriously) and one of the workers was able to ring out and alert the authorities before the phone lines were cut.
Who were these armed men?
They were the ghost of Saudi’s past. They were a bunch of Wahhabi extremists who called themselves... ‘al-Ikhwan’. After 50 years the group had returned, and were here now, seemingly out of nowhere, armed to the teeth and willing to die for their version of their faith, occupying the Grand Mosque in Mecca.
They released most of the hostages (but not all). They fortified the Mosque. They set up snipers in the minuets. They controlled the ground. No one knew how many there were; what weaponry they had (there was a lot- mostly sourced from (surprise surprise) National Guard barracks); how many hostages they still held...
Saudi interior forces went to storm the mosque as soon as they could. Twice they attacked and twice they retreated with heavy losses. The King responded to this defeat by evacuating the entire city of Mecca and asking for foreign special forces to fly in and help them.
Meanwhile the Ikhwan used loudspeakers to issue their demands- The Kingdom was betraying Islam they said. They called for an immediate end of all oil exports to the West and for all foreigners to be expelled from Saudi at once. They also felt the house of Saud should be deposed.
Understand- before trying to retake the Grand Mosque the Saudi King had asked the religious authorities for a ruling justifying lethal force if need be. They got their Fatwa for it but there was a noticeable reluctance and the wording made it clear... these Ikhwan retained a lot of support within the ranks of the conservative clerics.
Finally, the Saudi’s ordered the third attack upon the Mosque. The result was brutal. Tonnes of tear gas was pumped into the buildings, grenades were dropped indiscriminately, hostages and insurgents alike were killed and then finally the Saudi’s stormed it.
Unhelpfully while all this was going on? Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini claimed the attack was organised by the Americans and ‘zionists’ which led to the US embassies in Libya and Islamabad in Pakistan being burned down by mobs there... and this was weird.
Because Khomeini hated the Wahhabi. You’d think he’d relish their discomfort.
Oh. Who are the Wahhabi?
We need to define some terms here. It’s really important.
Right, what follows is a gross simplification but the complicated nature of Muslim jurisprudence and belief, means few ever try to do the following.
There is a LOT of ignorance in the West about the complexity and differences within Islam. Certain labels ONLY apply if a Muslim decides to add additional beliefs to his world view. So, what follows are definitions so we are all on the same page:
*Muslims (come in all colours and shapes; do NOT all worship the same way (hence Shi’a, Sunni, Sufi, Ismaili, Alawite etc); differences are varied but core belief- there is no God but Allah and Mohammed (pbuh) is His Prophet, is universal)
A Muslim, however, is NOT automatically a...
Meanwhile the Ikhwan used loudspeakers to issue their demands- The Kingdom was betraying Islam they said. They called for an immediate end of all oil exports to the West and for all foreigners to be expelled from Saudi at once. They also felt the house of Saud should be deposed.
Understand- before trying to retake the Grand Mosque the Saudi King had asked the religious authorities for a ruling justifying lethal force if need be. They got their Fatwa for it but there was a noticeable reluctance and the wording made it clear... these Ikhwan retained a lot of support within the ranks of the conservative clerics.
Finally, the Saudi’s ordered the third attack upon the Mosque. The result was brutal. Tonnes of tear gas was pumped into the buildings, grenades were dropped indiscriminately, hostages and insurgents alike were killed and then finally the Saudi’s stormed it.
Unhelpfully while all this was going on? Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini claimed the attack was organised by the Americans and ‘zionists’ which led to the US embassies in Libya and Islamabad in Pakistan being burned down by mobs there... and this was weird.
Because Khomeini hated the Wahhabi. You’d think he’d relish their discomfort.
Oh. Who are the Wahhabi?
We need to define some terms here. It’s really important.
Right, what follows is a gross simplification but the complicated nature of Muslim jurisprudence and belief, means few ever try to do the following.
There is a LOT of ignorance in the West about the complexity and differences within Islam. Certain labels ONLY apply if a Muslim decides to add additional beliefs to his world view. So, what follows are definitions so we are all on the same page:
*Muslims (come in all colours and shapes; do NOT all worship the same way (hence Shi’a, Sunni, Sufi, Ismaili, Alawite etc); differences are varied but core belief- there is no God but Allah and Mohammed (pbuh) is His Prophet, is universal)
A Muslim, however, is NOT automatically a...
*Islamist (Islamism is a POLITICAL movement (not a religious one, but several clerics have post-hoc given it religious justification); these are Muslims who have decided to believe Muslim nations should NOT be based on democracy/socialism/any modern political system but rather run via Sharia (the law as described in the Koran AND the Hadith combined (never just the Koran); includes groups such as Hamas & The Muslim Brotherhood; while political have been known to get violent on their enemies (aka mostly non-Islamist Muslims and any Muslim who does something they dislike).
An Islamist, however, is NOT a...
*Salafist (core belief- it’s NOT enough to run a nation on the principles of Sharia- as Sharia has been corrupted by ‘modern’ innovations (modern defined as ‘ANY ruling created by the Ulama in the last 1400 years’); several also believe that all Muslim nations should be combined again into one giant Muslim state; wide divergence of groups including actual pacifist types but most famed for Jihadists (you know- the terrorists); principle targets of the Jihadists are always Muslims who oppose them but they often blame ‘the West’ as ‘corrupting’ these treasonous Muslims (this is the only way they can justify the fact that they make up at most 0.02% of the worlds Muslim population and the other 99.98% of Muslims mostly think they are murdering assholes) and thus DO target the west- the ratio is roughly 1 attack upon a western target for around 30 on Muslim ones- which clearly shows who their true enemy is); most Jihadi groups like al-Qaeda are these guys)
A Salafist, however, is NOT usually a...
*Takfiri (who are genuinely insane and believe ALL Muslims who do not follow their way of worshipping are apostates and thus justified in being killed (thus they equally hate Muslims, Islamists and Salafists and frequently end up killing/being killed by them); unlike Salafists they will totally ignore the Koran and the Hadith if any rule gets in their way; very good at recruiting people by saying ‘we will fight the West’ but also suffer from serious levels of recruits running away when they realise that mostly? They just murder Muslims; basically we are talking Boko Harem in Africa and above all ISIS (Da’esh); ISIS currently suffering after long war against normal Muslims which has obliterated their ranks; lone wolf wingnuts who claim to work for a Takfiri group often won’t even know what Takfiri means).
These are simple explanations.
Want me to get technical? Explain the Qutbism fusion with Salafist movements to create Salafist Jihadism? Go on about how the need to give bayat has split the Salafist Jihadis? Sure; I am aware of the nuance of the complex theological issues but I need to cut stuff, so I’ll save that for a separate post someday. These are are simple but accurate labels.
Muslims, Islamists, Salafists, Takfiri...
NOT the same things, NOT the same people, and the differences are very important.
Some folks will appear online or on TV and claim all Muslims are the same.
They have literally NO idea what they are talking about.
Anyway...
*Salafist (core belief- it’s NOT enough to run a nation on the principles of Sharia- as Sharia has been corrupted by ‘modern’ innovations (modern defined as ‘ANY ruling created by the Ulama in the last 1400 years’); several also believe that all Muslim nations should be combined again into one giant Muslim state; wide divergence of groups including actual pacifist types but most famed for Jihadists (you know- the terrorists); principle targets of the Jihadists are always Muslims who oppose them but they often blame ‘the West’ as ‘corrupting’ these treasonous Muslims (this is the only way they can justify the fact that they make up at most 0.02% of the worlds Muslim population and the other 99.98% of Muslims mostly think they are murdering assholes) and thus DO target the west- the ratio is roughly 1 attack upon a western target for around 30 on Muslim ones- which clearly shows who their true enemy is); most Jihadi groups like al-Qaeda are these guys)
A Salafist, however, is NOT usually a...
*Takfiri (who are genuinely insane and believe ALL Muslims who do not follow their way of worshipping are apostates and thus justified in being killed (thus they equally hate Muslims, Islamists and Salafists and frequently end up killing/being killed by them); unlike Salafists they will totally ignore the Koran and the Hadith if any rule gets in their way; very good at recruiting people by saying ‘we will fight the West’ but also suffer from serious levels of recruits running away when they realise that mostly? They just murder Muslims; basically we are talking Boko Harem in Africa and above all ISIS (Da’esh); ISIS currently suffering after long war against normal Muslims which has obliterated their ranks; lone wolf wingnuts who claim to work for a Takfiri group often won’t even know what Takfiri means).
These are simple explanations.
Want me to get technical? Explain the Qutbism fusion with Salafist movements to create Salafist Jihadism? Go on about how the need to give bayat has split the Salafist Jihadis? Sure; I am aware of the nuance of the complex theological issues but I need to cut stuff, so I’ll save that for a separate post someday. These are are simple but accurate labels.
Muslims, Islamists, Salafists, Takfiri...
NOT the same things, NOT the same people, and the differences are very important.
Some folks will appear online or on TV and claim all Muslims are the same.
They have literally NO idea what they are talking about.
Anyway...
The Wahhabi of Saudi Arabia
The Wahhabi school of Islam is often placed within the Salafist schools of thought; for some, Wahhabism was the movement that spawned modern Salafism.
It was created by a man called Muhammad ibn Abu-al Wahhab who was born back in 1703 in the Nejd (whenever you think of Arabia with big golden sand dunes- you are thinking of the Nejd) and grew up in the simple life of the desert. As a young man he went to Basra to study the Koran and was horrified at the wild Persian Gulf port. It was filled with people, endlessly noisy and there were many versions of Islam all jostling with one another. He hated it. Eventually he returned home to his quiet desert home and began preaching a simple, bare bones version of Islam. For him?
The faith had lost its way.
His teachings eventually became known as Wahhabism.
Now in the same way Karl Marx said he may have invented Marxism but he WASN’T a Marxist, so Wahhab would never claim to be a Wahhabi. He never wrote a single political text. He just wanted a ‘pure’ anti-modern version of Islam. Go read Kitab-al-Tawhid (the Book of Unity- his Magnus opus). It’s just clarifications of the Koran that says nothing about Western influence or stuff.
All things being equal? Chances are, in any normal situation, by the 21st Century, Wahhabism would only be found in small Saudi desert communities and be an utterly unimportant Islamic sect only interesting to anthropologists, like the Yazidi say, but three things prevented that, politicised it and gave it vast influence.
One? The Ikhwan became Wahhabi and help found Saudi so Wahhabi beliefs were ingrained into the DNA of the state.
Two? In 1938 the Saudi’s found oil and thus became rich & important.
And three?
1979 and the siege at the Mosque. Let’s get back into that...
The deal
Faced with the crisis back in 1979, the Saudi’s responded forcefully. Firstly the survivors of the Mosques occupation forces were beheaded en masse. But the Saudi’s didn’t go after the group who some felt created them (the Wahhabi). Rather they made a deal with the Wahhabi Clerics for the sake of future stability.
They gave them control over the Saudi education system; they gave them free reign to increase the size and scale of the religious police and above all, they gave them the power to expand their influence upon Saudi society.
Now in the same way Karl Marx said he may have invented Marxism but he WASN’T a Marxist, so Wahhab would never claim to be a Wahhabi. He never wrote a single political text. He just wanted a ‘pure’ anti-modern version of Islam. Go read Kitab-al-Tawhid (the Book of Unity- his Magnus opus). It’s just clarifications of the Koran that says nothing about Western influence or stuff.
All things being equal? Chances are, in any normal situation, by the 21st Century, Wahhabism would only be found in small Saudi desert communities and be an utterly unimportant Islamic sect only interesting to anthropologists, like the Yazidi say, but three things prevented that, politicised it and gave it vast influence.
One? The Ikhwan became Wahhabi and help found Saudi so Wahhabi beliefs were ingrained into the DNA of the state.
Two? In 1938 the Saudi’s found oil and thus became rich & important.
And three?
1979 and the siege at the Mosque. Let’s get back into that...
The deal
Faced with the crisis back in 1979, the Saudi’s responded forcefully. Firstly the survivors of the Mosques occupation forces were beheaded en masse. But the Saudi’s didn’t go after the group who some felt created them (the Wahhabi). Rather they made a deal with the Wahhabi Clerics for the sake of future stability.
They gave them control over the Saudi education system; they gave them free reign to increase the size and scale of the religious police and above all, they gave them the power to expand their influence upon Saudi society.
Cinemas were closed. Women were forbidden from working. Girls were forbidden to do sports at school. Saudi became way more austere.
Before 1979 Saudi Arabia had been (by today’s standards) remarkably liberal. Some women could even get away with miniskirts! That all ended in the wake of the attack on Mecca.
Also? From now on? If the Saudi’s were to help their Muslims brothers and sisters across the world? It would go hand in hand with their Wahhabi school of Islam (they granted them control/vast influence on the international aid part of the government). The small, insular and somewhat inward looking version of Islam was now able to spread across the world.
The best name for it I’ve heard is Petro-Islam. The vast wealth of Saudi spreading the ideals of Wahhabism across the globe.
The best example of this?
The Soviet invashion of Afghanistan displaced millions of Afganhi’s into Pakistan. Saudi set up scores of schools for the orphans of the war... these schools were Wahhabi in doctrine. The result? It was in these schools that those orphans grew up to become Salafist fundamentalists coloured with the Saudi mold... the Taliban.
Salafist and Islamist movements are rocking the status quo of nations as different as Morocco, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan... and for some? The blame lies entirely with Petro-Islam.
In many ways, however, the deal between the House of Saud and the Wahhabi allowed domestic bliss in Saudi royal family. The conservatives were appeased. The Kings didn’t make the deal for religious reasons. For them it was just domestic politics. But the implications were huge.
It is no coincidence that when the Saudi’s allowed US and coalition forces into its soil in large numbers in the lead up to the First Gulf War, the battlecry of Osama Bin Laden (which led to the formation of al-Qaeda) was the same as the one issued by the Ikhwan back in 1979... no foreigners on Saudi soil.
The legacy of the Wahhabi Ikhwan runs deep.
9/11 & The War Against Terror
Saudi Arabia as a nation has thrived since the 1930’s with unspoken (yet sometimes very visible) support of the United States. The US and The Kingdom has one of the longest lasting alliances in modern geopolitics.
So for al-Qaeda, a group formed IN Saudi, led BY a Saudi, funded by Saudi’s, sheltering with the Taliban (who existed because of Wahhabi influence), to then send a bunch of Saudi’s to attack America as it did on 9/11?
This was horrific for the Kingdom.
Added to that, there WERE, regardless of what they say, Saudi citizens who supported AQ. Saudi’s who were happily Jihadi Salafists (if not actively fighting then happily funding). It was all deeply awkward.
But when the chips were down Saudi managed to successfully extract themselves from this mess. They sided with America, which led to Salafist attacks upon the Kingdom and after some hard assed intelligence led operations, Saudi managed to separate the AQ supporting Salafists away from the conservative Wahhabi.
They didn’t solve the issues with Jihadism in Saudi. But they did put a lid on the box.
It is no coincidence that when the Saudi’s allowed US and coalition forces into its soil in large numbers in the lead up to the First Gulf War, the battlecry of Osama Bin Laden (which led to the formation of al-Qaeda) was the same as the one issued by the Ikhwan back in 1979... no foreigners on Saudi soil.
The legacy of the Wahhabi Ikhwan runs deep.
9/11 & The War Against Terror
Saudi Arabia as a nation has thrived since the 1930’s with unspoken (yet sometimes very visible) support of the United States. The US and The Kingdom has one of the longest lasting alliances in modern geopolitics.
So for al-Qaeda, a group formed IN Saudi, led BY a Saudi, funded by Saudi’s, sheltering with the Taliban (who existed because of Wahhabi influence), to then send a bunch of Saudi’s to attack America as it did on 9/11?
This was horrific for the Kingdom.
Added to that, there WERE, regardless of what they say, Saudi citizens who supported AQ. Saudi’s who were happily Jihadi Salafists (if not actively fighting then happily funding). It was all deeply awkward.
But when the chips were down Saudi managed to successfully extract themselves from this mess. They sided with America, which led to Salafist attacks upon the Kingdom and after some hard assed intelligence led operations, Saudi managed to separate the AQ supporting Salafists away from the conservative Wahhabi.
They didn’t solve the issues with Jihadism in Saudi. But they did put a lid on the box.
The Spring Storms
The final event that rocked Saudi to its core was recent. The Arab Spring. Genuine grass roots revolts against dictatorships across The Middle East. Let’s face it- you don’t get much more ‘dictatorship’ than a medieval monarchy supported by a bunch of clerics who think everything beyond the 15th Century was a bad idea, do you really?
Saudi DID face protests and demands for greater freedoms. Especially in? You guessed it- the east. The Kingdom responded brutally. They introduced what westerners call the ‘carrot and stick’ approach.
The stick was the clamp down. No dissent was allowed. End of story. The Kingdom will kill those who resist the Kingdom- ESPECIALLY if they are Shi’a.
They even sent their troops into Qatar to curtail the protests there.
Open Democracy is NOT tolerated by the Kingdom.
The carrot?
The Kingdom poured billions into basically providing for their people. Don’t get me wrong- there is still poverty across Saudi Arabia; if you on benefits you ain’t rich, not by any stretch of the imagination. But the safety net is generous, strong and keeps folks mostly pacified.
Health care is free, oil and housing is subsidised and dirt cheap, there were zero taxes, consumer good prices were kept low, education (especially University education) is also free. Saudi did a great line in making so their people didn’t WANT democracy. They had been doing so since the 70’s but after the Arab Spring the spending increased.
But in doing that they began a chain of events that led to their current crisis. And as the crisis began to show itself, there emerged from stage left the most amazing Saudi leader in generations. And now the story gets all Game of Thrones like...
MBS
Meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem. A few years ago he was a little known member of the Saudi royal family. He now rules the entire place.
His rise (and the labyrinthine politics involved) could fill three of these huge posts of mine. In short- MBS is a ruthless millennial master politico; to describe him as Machiavellian would actually be suitable- he IS a Prince; and he has triumphed in a feudal court filled with men who wanted him dead. Machiavelli wrote his guide to rulership for the likes of MBS.
I originally wrote a huge section on how MBS rose in power. But I cut it. Sorry not sorry this post is too long as it is.
The carrot?
The Kingdom poured billions into basically providing for their people. Don’t get me wrong- there is still poverty across Saudi Arabia; if you on benefits you ain’t rich, not by any stretch of the imagination. But the safety net is generous, strong and keeps folks mostly pacified.
Health care is free, oil and housing is subsidised and dirt cheap, there were zero taxes, consumer good prices were kept low, education (especially University education) is also free. Saudi did a great line in making so their people didn’t WANT democracy. They had been doing so since the 70’s but after the Arab Spring the spending increased.
But in doing that they began a chain of events that led to their current crisis. And as the crisis began to show itself, there emerged from stage left the most amazing Saudi leader in generations. And now the story gets all Game of Thrones like...
MBS
Meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem. A few years ago he was a little known member of the Saudi royal family. He now rules the entire place.
His rise (and the labyrinthine politics involved) could fill three of these huge posts of mine. In short- MBS is a ruthless millennial master politico; to describe him as Machiavellian would actually be suitable- he IS a Prince; and he has triumphed in a feudal court filled with men who wanted him dead. Machiavelli wrote his guide to rulership for the likes of MBS.
I originally wrote a huge section on how MBS rose in power. But I cut it. Sorry not sorry this post is too long as it is.
So we jump in a few years ago- his father is king of Saudi but the successor (know as the Crown Prince) is not an automatic father-son thing in Saudi. Rather there are a whole bunch of potential candidates nearly all of them older than MBS and interpersonal family politics is all.
As a result of the arguments caused when MBS was Defense Minister and ordered the Saudi intervention in Yemen (he left at least one old guard rival out of the loop in the decision to go in) MBS found himself made ‘Deputy Crown Prince’ behind his cousin Muhammad bin Neyef (above), who was designated heir. What surprised everyone outside of Saudi at the time?
MBS and Neyef were fairy young compared to others in the court.
Their rivalry promised to last decades.
MBS wasn’t going to wait that long.
The Red Wedding: Saudi style
In 2017 MBS announced a purge on corruption within Saudi. Corruption had kinda been endemic in Saudi for so long, you never actually expected it to change.
This isn’t a condemnation or judgement on the Saudi’s by the way. As I said, tribal identity still counts for a heck of a lot in The Kingdom. Any nation with tribal identity still crucial to it is going to have issues with nepotism, favouritism and eventually corruption. So his purge was seen at first as window dressing. And for 7 months not much happened...
In November 2017 however MBS announced the arrest of over 200 leading saudi buisnessmen AND members of the royal family. The arrests were done with startling speed, leaving the culprits somewhat bewildered as they were hastily bundled off to a new temporary luxury prison (the 5* Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh), where they would be held.
Included in those arrested? Aside from members of his own family? The Head of the National Guard (ah, them!) the head of the Saudi navy, as well as famed Saudi’s like Waleed bin Talib (regular Saudi voice on US networks and serious investor in companies as diverse as Citi and Twitter) and the Head of the Saudi branch of the Bin Laden construction company. He arrested conservative clerics.
It was weird- it appeared like he was doing the proper thing, but it also simultaneously appeared that he was basically going after his rivals. Who you believe depends on your take on MBS really. Read the New York Times? It was a power grab. Listen to MBS? It was a much needed anti-corruption purge.
Certainly within Saudi? The arrests were insanely popular. Demographically? Much of the population is young and this purge of the old guard played stupidly well with them.
And yet? Included in the list of those arrested? His rival bin Neyef. I mean c’mon... it’s gotta be a purge/power grab! Right? His enemies were now locked up, sleeping on the floor of a five star hotel...
Reinforcing this came rumours... that one prince tried to escape in helicopter and this was shot down by a Saudi jet fighter. That MBS placed his own mother under house arrest (self same rumours say she opposed his plans for reform).
So much is hidden in Saudi, we really don’t know for sure. It isn’t called the Kingdom of Secrets for nothing.
IF it was a power grab? In terms of pure realpolitik- it was a brilliant and brutal consolidation of power, outclassing previous survivors of deadly regimes (like Stalin or Mao).
If it was an honest cleanse of corruption? It was more wide sweeping than any before.
Let’s face it, it could also be both simultaneously.
Eventually the accused were informed that they could buy their way out of trouble. But the money needed to pay wasn’t small even by their standards.
The master plan.
The money the anti-corruption purge seized went to a good cause- it was to be used to help fund aspects of Vision 2030. And now since I’ve covered China’s masterplan (MiC2025) and Putin’s economic issues, we need to look at Vision 2030 because EVERYTHING MBS is doing is to get this over the line.
So what is Vision2030? Simply put- the richest oil country on Earth wants to NOT be dependant on the sale of oil anymore. They want to open up other markets and develop Saudi so it will make as much from non-oil economic developments as it does from the sale of gas. And all by 2030.
Vision2030 envisions the Saudi’s radically growing certain areas of the Saudi economy- health (especially health tourism), infrastructure development, recreation and tourism (both rich westerners AND Muslims coming on the Hajj) and also increasing consumer services.
They want to start producing weaponry instead of buying their military equipment in; they want a retail explosion; they want to increase jobs in manufacturing and building.
These are, on paper, smart ideas which will diversify Saudi and make it stronger long term.
In fact when you consider what Vision2030 is trying to do, many of the ‘reforms’ MBS has spearheaded in the Kingdom now appear much more practically minded, having been driven by economic nescessity not ideology.
For example- the lifting of the ban on women driving alone. MBS didn’t do this because he believes the idea is backward (which he may well do). No, he did this because he believes women represent 50% of the potential workforce and he needs them able to get to work.
And for the record- MBS is NOT a reformer. He himself rejects the title. He described himself as simply the Crown Prince trying to sort out Saudi without there being a civil war and if you look at it this way you see everything he does in that light.
Paradoxically this is also the man who once said that if he didn’t stop the excesses of the conservative clerics Saudi would become like North Korea. Time and again he comes across as a pragmatist- an adherent of realpolitik. He will do what he needs to do ignoring any and all ideology. The means are always justified as long as he reaches the end.
So he will allow limited democracy, BUT serious dissent is obliterated. Human rights groups, women’s right activists, anyone who rocks the boat?
Crushed.
You see this in his masterplan. Vision2030 for example plans the creation of a new tourist city on the Red Sea coast which will (to cries of horror to the conservative factions) allow women wear bikinis. Does he do this because he thinks the ban is silly? Or does he do this because he wants to attract westerners and the ban would put folks off?
Saudi is planning to build a Six Flags park there by 2022. Because he loves rollercoasters? Or because he needs American brands to make it attractive to international tourists?
Which means that while many conservatives are horrified at the idea of western entertainment companies coming to Saudi, he throws money around to lure them there (WWE was an early adopter, not drawn because MBS is a Triple H fan but because by getting western brands to come to The Kingdom, it makes it more acceptable for other foreign brands to follow).
His plan is eminently practical and pragmatic. On paper everything should be fine.
On paper...
Ahem!
There are in fact several BIG problems that may prevent this from happening however.
Let’s start at the basic one- cash.
Vision2030 needs hundreds of billions of dollars to pull this off. Even a nation as rich as Saudi does NOT have the cash required implement it.
How is Saudi to raise this money then?
Simple- they want to sell 5% of Saudi Aramco, their own state oil company (was originally an American company Aramco which Saudi took lock stock and barrel back in the 70’s).
The Saudi’s have estimated the worth of Aramco at around 2 TRILLION dollars so selling off shares in the company is a fast and easy way to make the cash... I mean who doesn’t want access to that Saudi black gold eh?
Only?
It’s not worth 2 Trillion. Far from it. It is insanely overvalued and as such- potential investors are not biting. To raise the money they need from Aramco, MBS is going to have to sell way more than 5% of the company. And this is may be a problem as it gives those who resent his power a cause to around; history has shown the House of al-Saud can be deadly and violent to leaders who underestimate their family rivals. He’s had to delay the sale.
MBS is also trying to juggle an older generation who hate change and the younger one who wants it thus leading to odd compromises- so yes, woman can now drive alone in cars; at the same time Saudi’s can download a phone app (Absher) which allows them track their womens movements and set up alerts if they try and use their passport at airports.
On the plus side it’s also useful for accessing government services and DOES appeal to the young but it’s a fudge trying to please both sides.
Pragmatic solutions are often fudges. And fudges don’t solve problems. Just kick them down the road a bit...
And on top of that? He has had to ride the Wahhabi clerics hard to implement the changes he needs to make and history shows- they do NOT accept they are wrong, they have long memories and they have advocates who will resort to violence to get their way...
Added to that? Several aspects of the plan are already running into difficulties. Medical tourism could be a thing but neighbours have a serious head start on Saudi in that respect (outstanding private hospitals/doctors/state of the art treatment in Dubai/UAE etc). The Kingdom will be hard pressed to compete.
Perhaps the biggest issue, however, is the fact that the private sector wages are lower than the public sectors and the jobs are filled with expats from around the world (who are much easier to fire- thus keeping wages in these sectors low). Convincing the young to take private sector jobs may be hard unless they utterly reform the private sector in Saudi.
Indeed the more you look at this particular problem, the bigger it gets. One of the areas the Vision2030 plan wants to increase is jobs in manufacturing and construction... except... well there has been a huge explosion in those industries already. And this has resulted in millions of migrant workers coming in from Southern Asia (Nepal, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh) to do them. And while it would be very easy for the Kingdom to kick them all out (like they just did to a couple of million of them) and replace them with local workers...
The Saudi’s? I don’t think they will bite.
See for the average young Saudi man, what he wants is a decent job working for the huge government; white collar, air conditioned office, maybe low paying but with plenty of perks. Outdoor construction?
That’s not as desirable.
MBS’s plan depends upon thousands of Saudi’s accepting that these ‘lesser jobs’ are the way forward.
Personally? I seriously don’t see that happening. I could be wrong but it IS a problem that needs to be overcome. Another problem?
The Vision2030 plan kinda ignores the east of Saudi- there is the King Salman Energy Park (known as SPARK) but that is just a $1.6 billion investment (compared to $500 billion on the Neom project (imagine a city designed to be basically a genuine ‘city of the future’) in the north west say and the vast majority of the cash going to develop the area around the capital). The Shi’a minority are feeing somewhat left out in the cold. Again.
MBS has a mountain to climb. And while he has done well domestically at first (his reign is less than 3 years old after all) he has made some big mistakes that are causing faith in him (and thus his plan) to waver.
The warning signs
Since he has all the power- it all falls upon MBS. Any mistakes he makes are amplified and highlighted. And his biggest mistakes?
Foreign policy.
Examples? He sold the intervention in Yeman as a quick easy war. Go in, kick out the Iranian supported Houthi’s, get out.
Saudi Arabia has, however, been dragged down into a long miasma of a seemingly endless war, and worse- they are actually losing.
Yemen is Saudi’s Vietnam. But also shows us what Vietnam would have been like if the Americans really didn’t give a crap about civilian casualties. Yeman is the largest humanitarian disaster on Earth and it isn’t slowing down.
And as was seen only last Saturday- the Houthis can strike back against Saudi. The attack on the Prince Rashid oil refinery by drones shows just how bad the war is going for the Kingdom.
And why are the Saudi’s and the Americans blaming Iran?
The warning signs
Since he has all the power- it all falls upon MBS. Any mistakes he makes are amplified and highlighted. And his biggest mistakes?
Foreign policy.
Examples? He sold the intervention in Yeman as a quick easy war. Go in, kick out the Iranian supported Houthi’s, get out.
Saudi Arabia has, however, been dragged down into a long miasma of a seemingly endless war, and worse- they are actually losing.
Yemen is Saudi’s Vietnam. But also shows us what Vietnam would have been like if the Americans really didn’t give a crap about civilian casualties. Yeman is the largest humanitarian disaster on Earth and it isn’t slowing down.
And as was seen only last Saturday- the Houthis can strike back against Saudi. The attack on the Prince Rashid oil refinery by drones shows just how bad the war is going for the Kingdom.
And why are the Saudi’s and the Americans blaming Iran?
The Muslim Cold War
Since 2002 or so the Middle East has seen a huge, epic and Shakespearean in size conflict impact upon every nation. A Cold War. Two Muslim nations basically jostling to become THE super power in the region and using proxies to fight one another.
On the one hand Saudi. On the other? Iran.
And so far? Iran is running rings around Saudi.
MBS and his government have made mistake after mistake since 2015, crucially making the Iranians stronger. What mistakes? Aside from Yemen?
Saudi turned on Qatar back in 2015 saying they supported terrorism and destabilised the region. What’s weird is when you peer at the allegations.
In a nutshell Saudi (with its long track record of supporting Salafist groups) is upset with Qatar who has a track record in supporting Islamist groups. Yes that is a black pot calling out the kettle.
But remember- these are differing groups with differing goals.
Saudi wanted Qatar to stop supporting Islamist groups like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar ignored them.
At MBS’s behest Saudi, the UAE, and a couple of other Gulf states implemented an actual blockade of Qatar in 2017. An actual genuine blockade.
Qatar?
They have given Saudi the finger and are carrying on regardless. And are now somewhat more favourably disposed towards the Iranians for obvious reasons.
And then there was Syria...
The biggest failure of Saudi foreign policy has been Syria. They kinda supported anti-Assad forces but crucially not ones who wanted a democratic and free Syria, but Islamist and Salafist groups (including two who were linked to AQ). Saudi clerics organised all of these into a broad anti-Shi’a coalition known as The Army of Conquest.
Said groups were swept aside by the combined forces of Assad backed up by Hezbollah (who are a Shi’a group based in Lebanon and who work for Iran and hard as nails (after all, if you fight Israel a lot you either get killed... or get hard) and Russia (whose ageing fleet of air craft made the difference).
Most of the fighting against ISIS however was done by Kurdish Muslims (with air support and some special forces intervention from NATO) but The Kingdom ignored that (several elements of the Army of Conquest while NOT Takfiri, had no issue with ISIS).
On the ground the famed Iranian general Quasim Suleimani (that’s him above; commander of the Quds force of the Iranian revolutionary guard and just about THE most feared/respected general in the Middle East right now) drove ISIS out of Iraq (thus making Iran seem like the champions of anti-Takfiri campaigns) and was one of the main organisers of Assad virtually winning in Syria (he is credited with winning the Battle of Aleppo where the Saudi backed forces were totally crushed).
Saudi backed the wrong horse in the Syrian conflict, supported said horse badly and kinda sorta made an utter pigs ear out of everything. Suleimani wipes the floor with their people.
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