A leading modeler has reduced the number of total coronavirus deaths it is projecting in the US by August 4 by 3,700 because so many Ameri...
A leading modeler has reduced the number of total coronavirus deaths it is projecting in the US by August 4 by 3,700 because so many Americans are wearing masks when they go out.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington was projecting that 147,050 would die by August 4 but on Tuesday, it lowered its estimation to 143,357.
As of Tuesday afternoon, more than 92,000 Americans had died from the virus and 1.5million were infected.
The research institute told CNN it was largely down to the increasing number of Americans who are wearing masks when they go out.
It brings comfort to many states that are yet to reopen that feared an increase in mobility, regardless of mask wearing, could lead to a spike in cases.
'We were pretty surprised. We were expecting to probably go up because of the big surge in mobility,' Chris Murray, the chairman of the school's Health Metrics Sciences department, said.
'If you dig deeper and look into the fraction of people in different states who are wearing masks, we think that is the key difference there, both their behavior and mask wearing.
Some forty percent of Americans said they wore a mask always when they left home. In northeastern states the number was more than 60 percent but not in upstate New York. Arizona and Wisconsin are the only two states where fewer than 20 percent said they wore masks all the time - Arizona's deaths are now projected to increase by more than previously thought
A much larger percent of the population said they sometimes wore masks when they left home. In Texas, Florida, California, Colorado and Arkansas - along with the northeast - the number was more than 80 percent
The greatest increase in people wearing masks - between five and 10 percent - was in Colorado, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri. There was a decrease of at least 10 percent in South Carolina, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Maryland
The scientists think there will be an increase of more than 20 percent than previously thought in the number of cases in Minnesota. It will reduce the number of cases by 20 percent or more in many others
This is a breakdown of how the model has changed per state. In Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and New York, they now predict 1,000 fewer deaths than last week but in California and Arizona, they predict 1,000 more
'Forty percent of the US wears the mask all the time; about 80 percent wears a mask sometimes. And that is probably helping separate the rise in mobility,' he added.
Not every state is mandating that masks or face coverings be worn in public. It is being enforced in New York, the worst hit state which is largely starting to reopen aside from New York City, and California.
According to IHME's data, in most of the northeast, California, Florida, Texas, Michigan, Illinois, Colorado and Arkansas, more than 80 percent of residents said they sometimes or always wear a mask when leaving home.
In only four states did fewer than 60 percent of residents say sometimes they wore them; South Carolina, Indiana, Wisconsin and Oklahoma.
Every other state's, between 60 and 80 percent of residents said they sometimes wore them.
Only in some northeastern states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Maine did more than 60 percent of residents say they always wore them.
The new projections for how many people will die across the US by August 4, according to IHME
Daily deaths are expected to continue to decrease in numbers but at a much slower rate than how they soared at the start of the crisis
Testing is projected to continue increasing while confirmed infections remains flat or steady, according to the modelers
The total number of hospital beds that will be continued continues to drop from more than 60,000 at the peak of the pandemic to just under 45,000 on May 19. The model says fewer than 5,000 will be needed by August
The figures were highest in New York City but in upstate New York and Long Island, only between 40 and 49 percent of residents said they always wore masks.
Wisconsin and Arizona are the only states where fewer than 20 percent of residents say they always wear a mask when outside of their homes.
In the last week, more there was a 20 percent increase in the number of people in northeastern states who reported always wearing masks when they left home.
The second highest increase - between 10 and 15 percent - was in Colorado.
There was an increase of between five and ten percent of people who said they sometimes wore masks in Florida, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri.
In Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, South Carolina and Oklahoma, there was at least a 10 percent decrease in the number of people who said they sometimes wore a mask out.
Now, the modelers predict there will be 1,000 more deaths in California and Arizona than previously thought, between another 500 and 1,000 in Texas, Colorado, Illinois and Maryland, and between another 100 and 500 in Delaware, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio and New Mexico.
But in Florida, North Carolina, New York and Pennsylvania, they are predicting 1,000 fewer deaths per state than before.
New York was the only state that had more than 1,300 new deaths between May 11 and May 18. In 24 states, there were fewer than 100 new deaths in the last week.
Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Illinois all saw between 700 and 1,000 deaths in the last week.
Parishioners wearing masks at a mass in San Antonio, Texas, on Tuesday. Masks have not been mandated by all states
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