Analysts today said they had spotted discrepancies in North Korea's video of the country launching the nation's biggest missile te...
Analysts today said they had spotted discrepancies in North Korea's video of the country launching the nation's biggest missile test, concluding that there was 'deception' from Pyongyang about the launch.
North Korea said it had successfully test-fired its new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile in defiance of crippling international sanctions on Thursday, the first time the country has fired such a weapon at full range since 2017.
But questions have been been raised over the authenticity of the launch, as new details - including discrepancies spotted in North Korea's heavily stylized video featuring Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch - have poked holes in Pyongyang's claims.
'The biggest question now is what was launched on March 24,' said Colin Zwirko, a senior analytical correspondent with NK Pro, a Seoul-based website that monitors North Korea.
Zwirko has examined commercial satellite imagery and footage released by state media and he says discrepancies in weather, sunlight, and other factors suggest the launch shown by North Korea happened on another day.
'I've been able to determine that there's some sort of deception going on, but the question remains: did they test another Hwasong-17 and they're just not showing us, or did they test something else?' Zwirko said.
Analysts today said they had spotted discrepancies in North Korea's video of the country launching the nation's biggest missile test, concluding that there was 'deception' from Pyongyang about the launch. Pictured: General view during the test firing of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in this undated photo released on March 24
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (centre) walking near what state media report says a new type inter-continental ballistic missile
But questions have been been raised over the authenticity of the launch, as new details - including discrepancies spotted in North Korea's heavily stylised video featuring Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch - have poked holes in Pyongyang's claims
North Korea said it had successfully test-fired its new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile in defiance of crippling international sanctions on Thursday, the first time the country has fired such a weapon at full range since 2017. But questions have been raised after 'discrepancies' emerged in the launch video
The U.S.-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) concluded that some of the North Korean footage is most likely from a test on the morning of March 16 that South Korea said failed shortly after launch, exploding in midair over Pyongyang. North Korea never acknowledged that launch or a failure.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency has cited unnamed sources who said intelligence officials in Seoul and Washington believed that North Korea then tested a Hwasong-15 ICBM on Thursday, an older and slightly smaller type it had last launched in late 2017.
South Korea's defense ministry has not confirmed that conclusion. On Friday, a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, deflected when asked whether the latest launch was really the new missile.
'We know this is a test of a long-range ballistic missile and clearly they try to learn from each of these tests to try to develop their capability further,' the official said. 'But I am going to refrain from talking about it too specifically as we're still analyzing our own intelligence on it.'
North Korea has a history of doctoring footage or reusing old images, but it would be 'a whole new level' if they were lying about the successful test of a major new weapon such as the Hwasong-17, Zwirko said.
North Korea has not responded to any outside reports that the launch may have been deceptive.
'I think it's likely that the March 16 launch was meant to have been the inaugural launch of the Hwasong-17, but it failed shortly after ignition,' said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
'This left the North Koreans with sufficient video footage and imagery to build a propaganda narrative after the March 24 launch succeeded.'
The March 24 missile may have featured a light payload, or none at all, to achieve a higher altitude and longer flight time than the 2017 Hwasong-15 test, he added.
'The North Korean state media report included specific numbers on how high and far the missile flew, suggesting that there was an intent to engineer a launch that would look like a larger missile than the Hwasong-15, even if it wasn't,' Panda said.
Hong Min, director of North Korean Research Division of Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said no matter which ICBM was tested, North Korea has proved it can launch missiles that can strike the far side of the planet.
'We will need to check thoroughly if the video was fabricated, but itâs not like the threat is reduced at all,' Hong said.
The questions over the authenticity of the launch comes as Kim Jong Un vowed to build up 'overwhelming' and unstoppable military power that can challenge 'imperialists', days after he presided over the nation's biggest missile launch.
The leader said that when North Korea is equipped with 'formidable striking capabilities', the country can guarantee its security and 'put under control' threats made by Western powers.
'Only when one is equipped with the formidable striking capabilities, overwhelming military power that cannot be stopped by anyone, one can prevent a war, guarantee the security of the country and contain and put under control all threats and blackmails by the imperialists,' Kim told workers involved in the launch, KCNA reported.
'We will continue to attain the goal of reinforcing national defense capabilities.'
Believed to be about 82 feet long, the Hwasong-17 is the North's longest-range weapon and, by some estimates, the world's biggest road-mobile ballistic missile system. The ICBM is pictured here in an image released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 25
North Korea on Thursday apparently launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017, one capable of hitting any part of the continental United States, while its Western rival has been focused on rising tensions with Russia amid the war in Ukraine. But doubts have been raised over the authenticity of the launch
North Korean state media heralded the launch of the Hwasong-17 as an 'unprecedented miracle', and South Korean and Japanese officials independently confirmed flight data that showed it flew higher and longer than any previous test.
The Hwasong-17, which was apparently fired at a high angle to avoid the territorial waters of neighbors, reached a maximum altitude of 3,880 miles and traveled 680 miles during a 71-minute flight before landing in waters between North Korea and Japan, Kim's official Korean Central News Agency said.
The agency said the test met desired technical objectives and proved the ICBM could be operated quickly during wartime conditions.
The South Korean and Japanese militaries had announced similar flight details, which analysts say suggested that the missile could reach targets 9,320 miles away when fired on normal trajectory with a warhead weighing less than a ton.
That would place the entire U.S. mainland within striking distance.
But new details - including discrepancies spotted in the North's heavily stylized video featuring leader Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch in a leather jacket and sunglasses - have poked holes in Pyongyang's claims.
Believed to be about 82 feet long, the Hwasong-17 is the North's longest-range weapon and, by some estimates, the world's biggest road-mobile ballistic missile system.
The apparent launch comes as government sources in South Korea claimed North Korea is preparing for its first nuclear bomb test in nearly five years.
Kim Jong Un's secretive regime appears to be hastily constructing a 'shortcut' to a tunnel at its nuclear test site in Punggye-ri in preparations for a seventh underground nuclear detonation, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported on Sunday.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un looks through a window during the test firing of what state media report is a 'new type' of intercontinental ballistic missile, fired on Thursday
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watched the launch of the missile from an observation deck
The launch of the missile is seen during from drone footage from Thursday's launch
North Korea revealed the Hwasong-17 missile in a military parade in October 2020 and Thursday's launch was its first full-range test.
Analysts noticed it appeared 'considerably larger' than North Korea's last new ICBM, the Hwasong-15, which was test fired in November 2017.
It was displayed a second time at a defense exhibition in Pyongyang in October 2021.
KCNA called the successful test a 'striking demonstration of great military muscle,' while Kim said it was a 'miraculous' and 'priceless' victory by the Korean people.
Photos were published of the missile leaving a trail of orange flames as it soared from a launcher truck on the airport's runway and Kim smiling and clapping as he celebrated with military officials from an observation deck.
The agency quoted Kim as saying that his new weapon would make the 'whole world clearly aware' of the North's bolstering nuclear forces.
He vowed for his military to acquire 'formidable military and technical capabilities unperturbed by any military threat and blackmail and keep themselves fully ready for long-standing confrontation with the U.S. imperialists.'
The Hwasong-17, which was fired at a high angle to avoid the territorial waters of neighbors, reached a maximum altitude of 3,880 miles and traveled 680 miles during a 71-minute flight
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walks away from what state media report is a 'new type' of intercontinental ballistic missile in a photo pictured on Thursday
Long-range and nuclear tests were paused when Kim and then US president Donald Trump engaged in a high-profile bout of diplomacy that subsequently collapsed in 2019. Talks have since stalled.
The launch comes at a delicate time for the region, with South Korea going through a presidential transition until May, and the US distracted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
South Korea's military responded to Thursday's apparent launch with live-fire drills of its own missiles launched from land, a fighter jet and a ship, underscoring a revival of tensions as diplomacy remains frozen.
It said it confirmed readiness to execute precision strikes against North Korea's missile launch points as well as command and support facilities.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters the United States requested an open Security Council meeting on the launch and looks forward to having it on Friday.
The United States also imposed fresh sanctions against five entities and individuals located in Russia and North Korea over transferring sensitive items to the North's missile program, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.
Thursday's apparent test was North Korea's 12th round of weapons launches this year and represented the most provocative test since President Joe Biden took office.
This picture shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, seen in black, posing with North Korean military personnel who took part in the test launch
Analysts noticed the Hwasong-17, pictured above, appeared 'considerably larger' than North Korea's last new ICBM, the Hwasong-15, which was test fired in November 2017
North Korea's resumption of nuclear brinkmanship reflects a determination to cement its status as a nuclear power and wrest badly needed economic concessions from Washington and others from a position of strength, analysts say.
Kim may also feel a need to trumpet his military accomplishments to his domestic audience and drum up loyalty while the country faces economic difficulties.
The North this year has also launched a purported hypersonic weapon, a long-range cruise missile and an intermediate-range missile that could reach Guam, a major U.S. military hub in the Pacific.
The U.S. and South Korean militaries previously said the North was preparing for a full-range test of the Hwasong-17 after concluding two of the recent midrange launches included components of the new ICBM.
Following a highly provocative streak in nuclear explosive and ICBM tests in 2017, Kim suspended such testing in 2018 ahead of his first meeting with then-President Donald Trump. But negotiations derailed in 2019 when the Americans rejected North Korean demands for a major release of U.S.-led sanctions against the North in exchange for a limited surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
The ICBMs launched in three 2017 test flights demonstrated they could reach into the U.S. mainland.
The 'new' missile is believed to be the Hwasong-17, pictured here being unveiled at a military parade in Pyongyang in October 2020, the country's largest and most destructive weapon
The larger Hwasong-17 may be intended to be armed with multiple warheads to overwhelm missile defenses.
North Korea's government in January had issued a veiled threat to end Kim's moratorium on ICBM and nuclear tests, citing U.S. hostility.
South Korea's military has also detected signs that North Korea may be restoring some of the nuclear-testing tunnels it detonated just before Kim's first meeting with Trump in 2018.
Some experts say the North may resume nuclear testing in coming months to claim it has acquired an ability to build nuclear warheads small enough to fit on some of its new delivery systems, including the hypersonic missile.
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