George W. Bush’s presidential campaign adviser Karl Rove believes that even if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi runs for re-election in November...
George W. Bush’s presidential campaign adviser Karl Rove believes that even if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi runs for re-election in November, she will retire if the Democrats do not keep the majority.
Further, he predicted that Republicans will retake the House, netting 25 seats or more.
Appearing on Fox News on Tuesday, Rove — whom Bush referred to as the “architect” of his successful 2004 re-election campaign — said there are multiple indices that can be used to predict how the 2022 midterms will likely go.
One is comparing the number of members of Congress from each party who are not seeking re-election.
So far, 24 Democrats have announced they will be leaving the House either to retire or seek another office, versus 12 Republicans.
“More than 10 percent of the Democrats in the House of Representatives are retiring. Six percent of the Republicans are retiring,” Rove said.
“This four-point GOP advantage, if you look at all of the elections since 1962 … this would point to a 40-seat gain for the Republicans,” he added.
Another predictor of the midterm results is the presidential job approval rating. President Joe Biden has just over 42 percent, according to a Real Clear Politics average of polls.
This rating indicates Republicans will pick up 18 seats or so, Rove said.
Looking at these and other factors, he sees Democratic losses in the mid- to high-20s in terms of seats.
“Let’s be honest — the Democrats are going to lose control of the House. Nancy Pelosi is not going to stick around,” Rove said.
“Let’s assume she’s going to run for re-election in the fall of 2022, but if the Democrats lose the House like I believe they will, she’s not going to want to stick around for two more years and attempt to be the minority leader,” he continued.
“So there is going to be a change in the leadership of the Democratic Party if they lose the House, as I believe they will, and Nancy Pelosi is going to retire,” Rove said.
The Washington Post reported on Sunday that Pelosi is almost certainly out as the head of the House Democrats regardless of what happens in the 2022 midterms.
Pelosi, who became the Democrats’ leader in 2003, promised during negotiations to return as speaker in 2018 that she would only serve through 2022.
The 81-year-old hedged slightly in November 2020 when asked if she would keep her pledge, saying, “I don’t want to undermine any leverage I may have, but I made the statement.”
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