Industry experts are warning that natural gas prices could surge massively this winter . Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates...
Industry experts are warning that natural gas prices could surge massively this winter.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said President Joe Biden has not really done anything substantial to lower the price of natural gas. While prices are currently dipping, he noted that this is usually the case for this time of the year and that prices will keep shooting up as winter approaches.
Lipow pointed out that the only thing Biden has done that has had any actual effect on gas prices is releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which may have decreased gas prices by 15 to 20 cents per gallon.
“As we go into the winter, especially the latter half of September, we could see additional relief at the pump of another 15 cents a gallon as refiners begin making that winter blend and that cheaper gasoline cost is passed through to the consumer,” said Lipow.
“When we look at utilities going forward this winter, especially with the soaring price of natural gas, which has doubled since this time last year, the consumer is going to be paying far more for natural gas this upcoming winter heating season. That’s also going to filter into higher electricity costs as 39 percent of our electricity is generated from natural gas.”
Neal Dingmann, managing director for energy research at American bank holding and financial services company Truist Financial, warned that American natural gas prices could spike as high as 60 percent this winter if the global energy crisis drags on.
“Natural gas prices this year have hit 14-year highs, and we don’t think that’s the end of it. We think we could even see a super-spike potentially this winter that we would put them back to 20- or 25-year highs,” said Dingmann.
September natural gas prices have already risen 3.7 percent to $9.68 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest front-month finish since July 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
This rally to 14-year highs has been attributed to Russia’s decision to once again halt natural gas flows to Europe along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of the month.
Colin Cieszynski, chief marketing strategist for SIA Wealth Management, noted that the August to September period has “historically been a seasonally stronger time of the year for natural gas, related to a combination of potential supply disruptions from hurricanes and anticipation of the upcoming home heating season.”
“[But this year], issues related to Russian natural gas supply into Europe have also been a factor,” he added.
Dingmann warned that prices could keep surging from $12 to $15 per MMBtu. This would represent an increase of up to 60 percent.
Government-imposed limitations threaten America’s energy grid
Such a scenario would threaten the American energy grid into its own energy crunch this winter, with constraints largely driven by federal government-imposed limitations on how much gas U.S. companies can produce.
“The story is capacity, capacity, capacity, and that’s just lack thereof,” noted Dingmann, who pointed out that the additional production capacity of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is currently just around 10 percent in the U.S., with natural gas production has fallen to around one billion cubic feet per day.
Dingmann pointed out that there is little supply left to fall back on. Five-year natural gas inventory levels are near their lowest levels in five years, and stockpiles that are typically relied on during the winter are 10 percent lower than normal.
Furthermore, there might be significantly less natural gas supply for U.S. consumption as the country becomes the world’s number one supplier of LNG. This is due to Europe wanting to decrease its reliance on Russian natural gas and having to deal with Moscow throttling gas supplies to the continent.
The U.S. Freeport LNG export hub, which covers around 20 percent of U.S. LNG exports, will partly reopen in October and is expected to increase output, but more of what it produces will be for export and not domestic use.
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